2009 Section V Championships Predictions - Class AA

The numbers have been crunched, and the predictions for Saturday's Class AA races are now available. On the boys side, it is no surprise that R-H is expected to win easily, with Hilton having a slight edge over Schroeder for second:

Rush Henrietta 28
Hilton 76
Schroeder 80
Penfield 109
Thomas 110
Fairport 162
Gates Chili 172
Churchville Chili 221
Spencerport 238
Wilson inc
Franklin n/a

Jared is the clear favorite for the individual crown. R-H should have 5 in the top 10, meaning the others in the top 10 should secure State Meet slots. Here are the top 30:
1 Rousell, Jared Thomas 16:20
2 Kozyra, Nate Rush Henrietta 16:40
3 Eustance, Tyler Hilton 16:46
4 Hotchkiss, Brian Rush Henrietta 16:52
5 Newton, Trevor Rush Henrietta 16:57
6 Piacentini, Anthony Schroeder 16:59
7 Burke, Colby Rush Henrietta 17:00
8 Gumina, Tyler Penfield 17:01
9 Mateer, Tim Thomas 17:02
10 Raymond, Alex Rush Henrietta 17:03
11 Nasello, AJ Schroeder 17:04
12 DeClerck, Cole Thomas 17:05
13 Lyons, Nate Schroeder 17:06
14 Hospers, Jamie Penfield 17:12
15 Sauln, Brad Rush Henrietta 17:12
16 Pirnie, Andrew Hilton 17:15
17 Cuddeback, Brad Hilton 17:16
18 DiMartino, Nate Hilton 17:19
19 Haynes, Mitchell Rush Henrietta 17:19
20 Tobey, Kevin Gates Chili 17:21
21 Jablonski, Kevin Fairport 17:22
22 Campbell, Paul Hilton 17:36
23 Schwalm, Steve Gates Chili 17:47
24 Hamouda, Adrian Schroeder 17:48
25 Stoutz, Matthew Fairport 17:48
26 Whittemore, Steve Schroeder 17:49
27 Sprague, Brady Penfield 17:49
28 Harney, Bryan Penfield 17:50
29 Green, Justin Fairport 17:50
30 Roth, Tyler Hilton 17:51

Looking at the Girls race, there are 3 teams with a decent chance to win. Hilton took 2nd (behind Mendon) easily at Counties and has the most depth. Fairport has only had 4 top girls all year, so one poor run (like the #3 runner at Counties) hurts them substantially, while R-H has 5 good runners (but #4 ran very poorly at Counties). Meanwhile, Penfield and Thomas, despite both having pretty good teams, will be relegated to battling for 4th place.

Hilton 62
Fairport 67
Rush Henrietta 74
Penfield 97
Thomas 99
Spencerport 162
Churchville Chili 200
Schroeder 213
Gates Chili 213

Brianna should have no problem making it a Thomas sweep of the individual titles. The top 7 girls are clearly established, so if Fairport or Hilton wins (each with two in the top 7), the State team is pretty set; however, if R-H wins, the battle for the final State Meet spot could be pretty wild. Here are the top 30:

1 Deming, Brianna Thomas 18:30
2 Hughes, Ashton Fairport 19:01
3 Lembo, Katie Penfield 19:06
4 Cocchiara, Amanda Hilton 19:08
5 Malone, Rachel Fairport 19:10
6 Robinson, Jodi Rush Henrietta 19:16
7 List, Rebecca Hilton 19:25
8 Maffett, Megan Spencerport 19:43
9 Greiner, Lizzie Rush Henrietta 19:45
10 Colon, Christina Thomas 19:47
11 Rosenthal, Jane Fairport 19:49
12 O'Neill, Karli Churchville Chili 19:55
13 Lenhardt, Carly Fairport 19:57
14 Greiner, Becky Rush Henrietta 19:59
15 Palmeri, Emily Hilton 20:07
16 Holt, Sally Hilton 20:12
17 Palermo, Val Schroeder 20:15
18 Mantilla, Leila Penfield 20:18
19 Cannon, Rachel Gates Chili 20:21
20 Engle, Kara Hilton 20:23
21 Cronmiller, Kristen Rush Henrietta 20:25
22 Bourcy, Alex Penfield 20:28
23 Hinton, Shavonna Thomas 20:30
24 MacDonald, Alana Rush Henrietta 20:39
25 Holleran, Claire Penfield 20:44
26 Farmer, Katy Gates Chili 20:45
27 Saxton, Katie Spencerport 20:45
28 Kimble, Briana Hilton 20:53
29 Redfield, Melanie Penfield 20:55
30 Ratcliffe, Kaycee Penfield 20:59

Of course, the wild card this year is the sickness that has come through various schools in recent days. There is no way of knowing who is affected. Were some of the particularly poor County races flu-related?

Monroe County Championships - 2009 Results

You can find complete results at yen timing - here.

The conditions (sloppy course and wind) made for some mighty slow times, but our teams, with the exception of the boys varsity, finished right in line with the predictions. We had some very nice performances from a place perspective, and we'll review those later this week.

Monroe County XC Preview - Boys Individuals

Here are the top 68 boys (leading contenders for first and second team All-County), as ranked by the computer:

1 Mangan, Steve Honeoye Falls Lima
2 Deir, Alex Honeoye Falls Lima
3 Vanvleck, Adam Mendon
4 Rousell, Jared Thomas
5 Looby, Ricky Irondequoit
6 Kozyra, Nate Rush Henrietta
7 Smolensky, Scotty Brighton
8 Hotchkiss, Brian Rush Henrietta
9 Erb, M.J. Victor
10 Eustance, Tyler Hilton
11 Piacentini, Anthony Schroeder
12 Lipani, Lou Arcadia
13 Hoose, Kevin Honeoye Falls Lima
14 Jones, Jesse Brockport
15 Mateer, Tim Thomas
16 Gumina, Tyler Penfield
17 Kandt, Joel Brockport
18 Reid, Kyle Victor
19 Burke, Colby Rush Henrietta
20 Fischer, Sean Sutherland
21 Newton, Trevor Rush Henrietta
22 Nasello, AJ Schroeder
23 Raymond, Alex Rush Henrietta
24 Heckman, Aaron Odyssey
25 Talpey, Greg Brighton
26 DeClerck, Cole Thomas
27 Lyons, Nate Schroeder
28 Hospers, Jamie Penfield
29 Pirnie, Andrew Hilton
30 Sauln, Brad Rush Henrietta
31 Cuddeback, Brad Hilton
32 Dworkin, Jordan Sutherland
33 Hallock, Billy Mendon
34 Coons, Joe Brighton
35 Zimmerman, Tyler Odyssey
36 VanVleck, Matt Mendon
37 Sweeney, Andrew Rush Henrietta
38 Jablonski, Kevin Fairport
39 Zeccola, Andrew Mendon
40 Holbrook, Austin Olympia
41 Miller, Evan Mendon
42 DiMartino, Nate Hilton
43 Mullen, Jake Brighton
44 Tobey, Kevin Gates Chili
45 Cleeton, Ben Sutherland
46 Ramsdell, Tommy Honeoye Falls Lima
47 Schwalm, Steve Gates Chili
48 McCullough, Ryan Brighton
49 Knapp, JonMichael Arcadia
50 Campbell, Paul Hilton
51 Tyler, Terrence Sutherland
52 Bigenwald, Eric Irondequoit
53 Anvelt, Mike Sutherland
54 Silverstein, Brian Brighton
55 Koss, Nick Irondequoit
56 Stahl, Eric Brighton
57 Enright, Connor Irondequoit
58 Hayward, Connor Victor
59 King, Dan Batavia
60 Hayden, Rob Sutherland
61 Sweazy, Shaun Brockport
63 Mclaughlin, Ian Irondequoit
63 Tillery, Kevin Batavia
64 Hamouda, Adrian Schroeder
65 Phelan, Will Sutherland
66 Whittemore, Steve Schroeder
67 Roach, Cooper Honeoye Falls Lima
68 Carroll, Frank Odyssey

Monroe County XC Preview - Girls Individuals

Before I get to the individuals, we need to take another look at the girls team scores. The computer was crying about inconsistent and sexist analysis, so I went back and provided the same methodology for the girls that was used for the boys. This resulted in a small number of changes to the order - most notably, it shows HF-L has a slight edge over Canandaigua. And for Schroeder, it shows we are right in the mix with Gates and Churchville (actually, ahead of Churchville on the tie-breaking sixth runner). Here are the updated predictions:

Honeoye Falls Lima 50
Canandaigua 56
Mendon 124
Fairport 140
Hilton 157
Rush Henrietta 171
Thomas 210
Penfield 218
Sutherland 255
Brighton 278
Irondequoit 351
Victor 360
Spencerport 375
Athena 403
Brockport 436
Gates Chili 464
Schroeder 472
Churchville Chili 472
Olympia 511
Odyssey 595
East Irondequoit 648
East Rochester 666
Arcadia 698
Batavia inc

Now for the individuals. Since this is a brand new course, the computer tells me it is unable to generate time predictions. And with an uncertain amount of rain coming Friday and early Saturday, historical times may not be particularly useful anyway. The top is pretty clear, as there have been three girls showing complete domination. Shaylyn should win, followed by Amanda and Brianna. Then things get interesting as there are about 20 girls who went under 19 at McQuaid, or could have. It looks like the top 34 (where did that number come from???) will make All-County, and the computer is predicting this list:

1 Tuite, Shaylyn Mendon
2 Moreland, Amanda Honeoye Falls Lima
3 Deming, Brianna Thomas
4 Hughes, Ashton Fairport
5 McCormick, Kate Canandaigua
6 Brunett, Jessie Honeoye Falls Lima
7 Malone, Rachel Fairport
8 Mack, Kellie Canandaigua
9 Steinke, Ruth Honeoye Falls Lima
10 Cocchiara, Amanda Hilton
11 McCormick, Meghan Canandaigua
12 D'Amore, Kendall Canandaigua
13 Jarvela, Angela Batavia
14 Hallock, Allison Mendon
15 Lembo, Katie Penfield
16 Robinson, Jodi Rush Henrietta
17 Cole, Hannah Honeoye Falls Lima
18 Hoh, Allison Honeoye Falls Lima
19 List, Rebecca Hilton
20 Maffett, Megan Spencerport
21 D'Amore, Lauren Canandaigua
22 Rosenthal, Jane Fairport
23 Greiner, Lizzie Rush Henrietta
24 Engle, Katie Honeoye Falls Lima
25 Beiter, Kaylin Honeoye Falls Lima
26 Atkins, Morgan Mendon
27 Tuttle, Georgia Irondequoit
28 Colon, Christina Thomas
29 Greiner, Becky Rush Henrietta
30 Lawler, Maggie Victor
31 Cymerman, Amy Sutherland
32 Lenhardt, Carly Fairport
33 Palmeri, Emily Hilton
34 Mantilla, Leila Penfield

Val just misses this list, based solely on McQuaid performances as her overall ranking is 32nd. Here is where the Schroeder Varsity girls are expected to finish:

38. Palermo, Val
95. Bay, Anneliese
112. Bailey, Alaina (if she were running the varsity race)
114. Edwards, Katie
117. Mills, Sarah
120. Kuitems, Karen
123. Hight, Ann

Monroe County Preview - Boys Teams

I had to increase the robustness of the computer algorithm to calculate the predictions on the boys side. There has been a great deal of "loafing" in league meets by many runners, so the overall rating is not the best indicator of the most likely results. I sprinkled a little extra into the broth, and the results make much more sense.

Given the inputs that I provided, the computer says the boys team scores will look like this:
Rush Henrietta 75
Honeoye Falls Lima 132
Brighton 156
Mendon 159
Hilton 161
Schroeder 194
Sutherland 201
Irondequoit 232
Thomas 246
Penfield 255
Victor 261
Odyssey 320
Brockport 363
Fairport 382
Gates Chili 404
Batavia 438
Arcadia 471
Churchville Chili 490
Spencerport 537
Olympia 564
Canandaigua 596
Athena 611
East Rochester 674
East Irondequoit 800

As with the girls, some teams may be looking past the County Meet, so we may see some variation due to that. I do expect R-H to win comfortably over HF-L, as HF-L's 5th man should post a much higher score than R-H's. The three-way battle for 3rd seems to be among Brighton, Mendon and Hilton. The computer says Brighton, but I think Mendon will sneak in, setting up the rematch to see who will place second to McQuaid at Sectionals. Schroeder seems to have a slight edge on Sutherland for 6th, followed by a pack of teams to close out the top 10 plus one.

At the other end of the race, East Irondequoit has a very good shot at setting a record for the highest score in Monroe County history, enabled by the growth to 24 teams. When there were just 21 teams, the highest possible score was 715 and last year, with 22 teams, the highest possible was 750.

Monroe County Preview - Girls Teams

OK, the computer has been fed all sorts of results from 2009, and is poised to make some predictions for the Monroe County Championship meet on Saturday. First up are the girls team scores.

It looks to be a two team battle between Canandaigua and HF-L for the win. The Section V coaches have HF-L ranked #1, but the computer says Canandaigua. Mendon usually outperforms at Counties (as does R-H), so it may not be quite as large a margin as the computer predicts. It will be interesting to see how much effort the top teams put forth, with Canandaigua and Mendon looking ahead to their Class A matchup at Sectionals; the same with Fairport, RH and Hilton in Class AA (with Thomas and Penfield needing to show they belong in the top group. And there is no doubt HF-L is already looking ahead to the state meet

In the Schroeder part of the standings, Churchville, Gates and even Brockport are well within reach, dependent upon a strong showing by our 2-5 runners.

Canandaigua 56
Honeoye Falls Lima 66
Mendon 128
Fairport 146
Rush Henrietta 151
Hilton 172
Thomas 211
Penfield 225
Sutherland 258
Brighton 277
Victor 340
Irondequoit 352
Athena 380
Spencerport 400
Brockport 440
Gates Chili 468
Churchville Chili 471
Schroeder 483
Olympia 527
Odyssey 584
East Rochester 665
Arcadia 701
East Irondequoit inc
Batavia inc

Taper Week Begins

Attendance at practice will be important this week, as we complete our taper for the County Meet, which is the final race of the season for most of the team. Finding the balance between working too hard and taking it too easy is best done as a group.

On one extreme, someone could take the whole week completely off, thinking that would make them fully rested for Saturday's race. Scientific research shows that this does not lead to good performances, and my experience is consistent with that: the legs can feel flat after so much time off, and some fitness does disappear after as few as 3 days off.

On the other extreme, running hard every day would clearly set one up for a tough time on Saturday. As we've seen in some of our weekend performances, even a particularly hard workout on Thursday can negatively affect a Saturday race.

Our dual meet success has been clear this fall. Dual meets usually follow a Saturday race, a Sunday easy day (or day off for most of the team) and a Monday easy day. For the runners that have not earned a guaranteed Sectional roster spot, we will simulate that a bit, with our last workout on Wednesday (think Cruise Intervals), an easy tour of the County course on Thursday and an easy jog on Friday. This means we will also do a workout on Monday, but don't be alarmed!

Last Thursday's workout was great, and yesterday's run demonstrated that we are well-positioned as we enter this final week. Get plenty of sleep, stay healthy and I am confident that we will see some excellent performances on Saturday!