Sectionals

I don't have time to go over the meet in detail right now, but what an exciting day!

Complete results are available at Yen Timing, in this folder: http://www.yentiming.com/results/2011/xc/sectionv/

Our boys had an outstanding race overall, as is best displayed in the "Merged" results, where they took 12th overall, beating everyone that was within reach.  The 11th place team, Hilton, was 115 points ahead, nearly 20 seconds per man.  My favorite statistic of the day was the compare to the [corrected] computer times that I had with me on Saturday.  The 96 boys on the list were, on average, 3 seconds faster than the computer had predicted.  Our team averaged 14 seconds faster, led by Zach's 48 second improvement, slightly better than R-H's 10 seconds faster (Colby Burke was their leader, at 23 seconds faster than predicted).

Our girls also placed 12th in the merged results, which was a good performance after all of the injuries we faced.  And Amanda qualified for the State Meet for the second year in a row.  Val had her best race ever, in terms of speed, but just missed making States.  After reviewing all of the results from all of the Sectional races around the state, it is clear that Val is the fastest girl that did not qualify.  The next fastest, interestingly enough, was Fayetteville-Manlius's 8th girl, who would have been the second individual qualifier in Section III, if she attended a different school.  The speed ratings indicate that Val was 19 seconds faster.  So, I guess that actually means that R-H's girls, Lizzie Greiner and Alana MacDonald are the next fastest non-qualifiers.  What an incredibly fast race!

Section V Preview - Class A

It is Sectional Eve and time to post the preview of our races.

Girls A


Canandaigua has looked solid all year, but won by "only" 15 points at Counties.  Given that their top 3 runners can't score much lower, it will be up to the D'Amore twins to put the meet away.  R-H, on the other hand, while running quite well at Counties, had 12 points available within 2 seconds of their 3-4-5 pack, which would have made it a 3-point meet.  Meanwhile Penfield, 10 points behind R-H, was running without their #4, which likely cost them about 14 points.  So, there are three teams with a legitimate shot at advancing to the State meet.  Here is the prediction:

1. Canandaigua 66
2. Rush Henrietta 82
3. Penfield 90
4. Schroeder 142
5. Hilton 157
6. Fairport 158
7. Victor 169
8. Thomas 172
9. Irondequoit 196
10. Athena 283
11. Brockport 289
12. Churchville Chili 293
13. Spencerport 415
14. Gates Chili 448
15. Edison inc
16. Monroe/Wilson/Jeff inc

As for individuals, this race is loaded: 26 of the top 32 girls from the Monroe County Championships are in this race!  I expect a repeat of Counties at the very top, with Meghan McCormick holding off Katie Lembo and Leila Mantilla.  Here is a look at the possible top 50:

1. McCormick, Meghan Canandaigua 18:20
2. Lembo, Katie Penfield 18:28
3. Mantilla, Leila Penfield 18:33
4. McCormick, Kate Canandaigua 19:00
5. Palermo, Val Schroeder 19:07
6. Paratore, Amanda Schroeder 19:08
7. Jensen, Kennedy Canandaigua 19:10
8. Albrecht, Autumn Brockport 19:15
9. O'Neill, Karli Churchville Chili 19:29
10. O'Hara, Eileen Thomas 19:33
11. Greiner, Lizzie Rush Henrietta 19:35
12. Tuttle, Georgia Irondequoit 19:35
13. MacDonald, Alana Rush Henrietta 19:47
14. Sedita, Erin Fairport 19:52
15. Lawler, Maggie Victor 19:52
16. O'Hara, Shannon Thomas 19:58
17. Griffin, Tishae Rush Henrietta 19:59
18. Tate, Tiffany Irondequoit 20:00
19. Hughes, Ashton Fairport 20:01
20. Quinn, Siobhan Rush Henrietta 20:02
21. Greiner, Becky Rush Henrietta 20:02
22. Heyer, Lindsay Penfield 20:07
23. Palmeri, Amanda Hilton 20:08
24. Keene, Haley Hilton 20:17
25. D'Amore, Lauren Canandaigua 20:21
26. Schnaufer, Illana Penfield 20:21
27. Dehm, Olivia Victor 20:26
28. Camillaci, Zoe Hilton 20:28
29. D'Amore, Kendall Canandaigua 20:36
30. Jones, Emma Rush Henrietta 20:41
31. Griffiths, Monica Hilton 20:41
32. Fries, Aly Victor 20:43
33. Bailey, Alaina Schroeder 20:44
34. Adams, Laura Thomas 20:46
35. McElligott, Meghan Fairport 20:48
36. Garbinski, Dana Canandaigua 20:49
37. Cok, Sarah Penfield 20:51
38. Lafferty, Courtney Athena 20:53
39. Bourcy, Abby Penfield 20:53
40. Roose, Serena Brockport 20:56
41. Wagner, Clara Irondequoit 20:58
42. Glitch, Kristina Rush Henrietta 21:00
43. Rosenthal, Jane Fairport 21:04
44. Miller, Hayley Canandaigua 21:05
45. Bellinger, Megan Victor 21:05
46. Yurksaitis, Sarah Schroeder 21:08
47. Lenhardt, Carly Fairport 21:09
48. Fahrenholz, Tori Penfield 21:09
49. Bucci, Loryn Fairport 21:09
50. Erickson, Kate Victor 21:14  

Boys A

The boys team race should be all R-H.  They scored 30 points at Counties, and actually won a dual meet against the other 23 schools in the county by taking the top 3 spots!  Irondequoit has a good team, ranked 19th in the state, but Thomas was only 11 points back at Counties, while Victor did not seem to be racing hard (MJ Erb and Connor Hayward back in 23-24), and could also challenge for second.

1. Rush Henrietta 25
2. Irondequoit 105
3. Victor 113
4. Thomas 115
5. Hilton 146
6. Fairport 152
7. McQuaid 202
8. Athena 226
9. Penfield 239
10. Schroeder 254
11. Gates Chili 267
12. Canandaigua 316
13. Churchville Chili 356
14. Brockport 415
15. Spencerport 444
16. Edison 505
17. Monroe/Wilson/Jeff inc  

The boys individual race will also feature R-H.  Only 21 of the top 32 from Counties are in the A race this weekend - not as lopsided as the girls race, and 6 of them are from R-H.  Travis Jordan from Gates-Chili and MJ Erb from Victor are the only guys with a reasonable shot of preventing another 1-2-3 finish by R-H.  The battle for the individual state meet slots will be intense.  The computer sees as many as 6 runners within 4 seconds battling for the final spot.  This has been the year of the Sophomore, and behind Mickey Burke, there are 3 more with a good chance to be on the bus for the state meet: Tyler Ranke from Hilton, Josh Dyrland from Irondequoit and Thomas's Josh Goldstein.  In all, 12 of the top 36 spots could be Sophomores in this race.

1. Kozyra, Nate Rush Henrietta 16:09
2. Burke, Mickey Rush Henrietta 16:15
3. Sweeney, Andrew Rush Henrietta 16:16
4. Jordon, Travis Gates Chili 16:23
5. Erb, M.J. Victor 16:33
6. Ranke, Tyler Hilton 16:33
7. Dyrland, Josh Irondequoit 16:45
8. Raymond, Alex Rush Henrietta 16:46
9. Bigenwald, Eric Irondequoit 16:50
10. Goldstein, Josh Thomas 16:51
11. Burke, Colby Rush Henrietta 16:52
12. Sullivan, Michael McQuaid 16:53
13. Hayward, Connor Victor 16:54
14. Scott, Jack Fairport 16:54
15. Andrievsky, Sasha Thomas 16:54
16. Root, Brennan Rush Henrietta 16:57
17. Kassu, Mintesinot Athena 17:05
18. Johnson, Keith Thomas 17:06
19. Roth, Corey Hilton 17:07
20. Burgin, Will Schroeder 17:10
21. Koss, Nick Irondequoit 17:11
22. Shanahan, Luke Victor 17:13
23. White, Jimmy Fairport 17:15
24. Stuver, A.J. McQuaid 17:17
25. Moran, Mitch Penfield 17:18
26. Mizma, Mitch Hilton 17:22
27. Penner, Andy Fairport 17:24
28. Schantz, Mike Rush Henrietta 17:25
29. Beaujon, Allen Canandaigua 17:26
30. Paige, Aaron Irondequoit 17:27
31. Trombley, Nick Canandaigua 17:28
32. Kozlowski, Mike Penfield 17:28
33. Peffley, Chris Thomas 17:30
34. Sykora, Josh Brockport 17:31
35. Buri, Josh Hilton 17:32
36. Mertens, George Victor 17:33
37. Steiger, Aidan Victor 17:34
38. Wilczewski, James Irondequoit 17:36
39. Baller, Mitchell Thomas 17:36
40. Reed, Justin Schroeder 17:36
41. Wagner, Ray Irondequoit 17:38
42. Lauria, Mike Athena 17:39
43. Wolf, Josh Fairport 17:39
44. Pease, Keith Athena 17:42
45. Razavi, Mike Fairport 17:42
46. Ciolkowski, Nick McQuaid 17:42
47. Tassone, Brendan Penfield 17:43
48. Staveski, Adam Fairport 17:44
49. Whitman, Ben Thomas 17:44
50. Muzdakis, Zachary Irondequoit 17:46  

Section V Preview - Class D

OK, on to the little schools.  This is the toughest for me to analyze, since we don't really race any of these schools.

Girls D

The current state rankings include the following Section V schools: #4-Geneseo; #5-Oakfield-Alabama; #8-Red Creek; #12-Campbell-Savona (Honeoye was 13th last week), so I focused my attention on those schools (plus Addison), and it looks like we could see the results shake out like this:

1. Geneseo 89
2. Oakfield-Alabama 114
3. Red Creek 119
4. Campbell-Savona 180
5. Honeoye 201
6. Addison  285

So, it looks like it really comes down to a three-team race, with Geneseo having the edge.  It should be close.  Note - Pavilion is Class D, so this comment belongs here, not in the Class C outlook: Pavilion never found a fifth girl, so they will not factor in the team results.

The individuals that could be in the running for a spot at the State meet:

1. Liz Valento Pavilion 
2. Sarah Coon Red Jacket 
3. Jeanette Schramm Harley-Allendale 
4. Heather Yuhnke Pavilion 
5. Megan Bouton Campbell-Savona 
6. Raylene Wade Red Creek 
7. Brenna Lyons Addison 
8. Anna Warner Notre Dame-Bat 
9. Erin Schiano Keshequa 
10. Casey Emerson Geneseo 
11. Jordan Prescott Pavilion 
12. Brianna Horn Geneseo 
13. Ashley Covel Oakfield-Alabama 
14. Lindsay Ryan Geneseo 
15. Jenny Crossen Oakfield-Alabama 
16. Faith McDonald Red Creek 
17. Allyson Fenton Clyde-Savannah 
18. Anna Phillips Avon

Boys D

This team race has the potential to be the most exciting of the day.  As with the Class D girls, there are 5 teams in the current state ranking list: #6-Geneseo; #7-Batavia-Notre Dame; #8-Oakfield-Alabama; #9-Campbell-Savona and #14-Addison.  So, four teams that are right in a row in the state rankings, plus a team that beat the fourth team by one point at their County Championships last Friday.  Taking into account the information that I could dig up, my best guess scrambles those rankings a bit, although Geneseo retains a slight edge.  Here's how I see it:

1. Geneseo 107
2. Campbell-Savona 118
3. Addison 123
4. Notre Dame-Batavia 155
5. Oakfield-Alabama 187

With the number of schools in this race, these scores can change dramatically.  Although Harley's fourth and fifth kids are back a bit, with 3 runners in the list below, they could be a factor.

Here are the top 22 individuals, according to Tully, with the top 3 being well ahead of the pack (and spaced somewhat themselves):

1. Gabe Rodriguez Geneseo 
2. Jeff Antolos Notre Dame-Bat 
3. Devon Rodriguez Geneseo 
4. Jon Pearl Campbell-Savona 
5. Thomas Abbey Addison 
6. Ethan Richardson Pavilion 
7. Connor George Oakfield-Alabama 
8. Gabe Bender Oakfield-Alabama 
9. Everett Geiger Caledonia Mumford 
10. Andrew Fischer Notre Dame-Bat 
11. Mitch Cicero Perry 
12. Gaylen Snyder Avon 
13. Ben Ivie Wheatland Chili 
14. Jon Chapin Canisteo-Greenwood 
15. Russell Hegedorn Harley Allendale 
16. Alex Hall Caledonia Mumford 
17. Matt Gibney Lima Christian 
18. Mike Verstraete Marion 
19. Arron Carlson Notre Dame-Bat 
20. Aamir Zain Harley Allendale 
21. Duncan Phillips Harley Allendale 
22. Seth Burton Addison

Section V Preview - Class B

Today, we'll look over the Class B races, and the Boys race could wind up being the most exciting race of the day.  But, ladies first...

Girls

There is no doubt that HF-L is the heavy favorite.  Mendon has a very good team (currently ranked 9th in Class B), but HF-L is just enough ahead at each spot to be the team to beat.  Here's the likely top 5 teams:

1. HF-L 26
2. Mendon 44
3. Sutherland 91
4. Brighton 104
5. Livonia 125

The individual race should be exciting, with the top 3 from HF-L and the top 2 from Mendon likely separating themselves from the rest of the field.  Let's call this list the 21 most likely to make the top 15.  Since this specific course has never been run before, I am totally making up the likely winning time - I think that the course will be much faster than this, with the bulk of the hill that defined the course having been removed, and with conditions expected to be ideal for racing on Saturday (let's hope those weathermen are correct) - possibly 15-30 seconds faster.

1. Cole, Hannah Honeoye Falls Lima 18:58 
2. Hallock, Allison Mendon 18:59 
3. Engel, Katie Honeoye Falls Lima 19:02 
4. Roncone, Krista Mendon 19:04 
5. Steinke, Ruth Honeoye Falls Lima 19:11 
6. Wagner, Robin Brighton 19:31 
7. Williams, Jenna Honeoye Falls Lima 19:44 
8. Ryan, Kylie Mendon 19:53 
9. Douglas, Riley Honeoye Falls Lima 19:55 
10. Yancey, Colleen Mendon 20:04 
11. Collins, Michelle Geneva 20:07 
12. Mizes, Alicia Sutherland 20:13 
13. Visca, Mary Sutherland 20:14 
14. Swertfeger, Sarah Olympia 20:20 
15. Pinker, Talia Brighton 20:25 
16. Wojnowski, Stephanie East Irondequoit 20:25 
17. Wojnowski, Veronica East Irondequoit 20:25 
18. Steensma, Erika Wayne 20:26 
19. Olson, Tricia Brighton 20:26 
20. Mineti, Melissa Livonia 20:27 
21. Cole, Ari Honeoye Falls Lima 20:31  

Boys

This is likely to be one of the two most hotly contested team titles on the day.  HF-L sat out the preview last weekend at Counties (with the decline of Wayne this year, the top of this race will be all Monroe County).  I'm not sure if that will help or hurt HF-L, but one should never second-guess Bernie, based on his incredible success at Sectionals over the years.  HF-L won the division, thanks to a 26-29 win over Mendon in the last  meet of the season (and did it without their 4th man).  Early in the season, it didn't look like they would be strong through the 5th runner, but they certainly are.  Interestingly, the computer still does not think HF-L will pull it off, placing them third.  I still consider them the favorite, so I've slid them ahead of Brighton, as a compromise.  Expect this one to be decided by seconds, and any of the top three teams could win.

1. Mendon 49
2. HF-L 51
3. Brighton 60
4. Sutherland 88

The individual title will be a two-man race.  Mike Anvelt beat everyone not from R-H last weekend, but I expect that Cooper Roach is likely to edge him out.  The computer disagrees; here are the top runners in the race:

1. Roach, Cooper Honeoye Falls Lima 15:46 
2. Anvelt, Mike Sutherland 15:47 
3. Wesley, Jack Mendon 16:06 
4. Burton, Will Mendon 16:13 
5. Ronchetti, Will Brighton 16:23 
6. Phelan, Will Sutherland 16:25 
7. Stahl, Eric Brighton 16:27 
8. Mullen, Andrew Brighton 16:28 
9. Brunett, Joe Honeoye Falls Lima 16:31 
10. Green, Connor Mendon 16:33 
11. Paganelli, JT Honeoye Falls Lima 16:37 
12. Mulcahy, Collin Batavia 16:39 
13. Leo, Patrick Honeoye Falls Lima 16:47 
14. Pavia, Corey Mendon 16:49 
15. Kassu, Mintesinot Athena 16:51 
16. Tarduno, Matthew Brighton 16:52 
17. Lawlor, John Honeoye Falls Lima 16:55 
18. VanVleck, Matt Mendon 16:56 
19. Strang, Alex Sutherland 16:57 
20. Douglas, Langton Honeoye Falls Lima 16:57 
21. Northrup, Brian Arcadia 16:58 
22. Laird, Jon Batavia 16:58 
23. Young, Robert Mendon 17:00 
24. Hassett, Jeremy Newark 17:01
25. Simpson, Zachary Brighton 17:03 
26. Tshibangu, Raphael Olympia 17:04 
27. VanDeMortel, Matt Geneva 17:04
28. Cove, Zach Sutherland 17:05  

Expect Class D tomorrow...

Section V Preview

Over the next four days, I'll post some random preview information regarding the Section V Championships on Saturday at Genesee Community College.  First, the schedule for Saturday:

• 10:30 Boys Class DD/D Race
• 11:00 Boys Class C Race
• 11:30 Girls Class DD/D Race
• 12:00 Girls Class C Race
• 1:30 Boys Class A Race
• 2:00 Boys Class B Race
• 2:30 Girls Class A Race
• 3:00 Girls Class B Race

Today, I'll preview Class C, which interests me the least and, therefore, requires the least time to analyze.

Class C Girls

Wayland-Cohocton is the clear favorite.  Their closest challenger is likely to be Byron-Bergen, who was about 30 seconds per runner behind them last week.  Williamson looks like they may be able to get a fifth girl across the line in time to finish third.

Nicole Bubie from Odyssey really surprised me in the opening league meet this year, keeping up with Val and Amanda for over two miles, after being two minutes behind them at Counties a year ago.  So, she has to be the favorite for the individual title.  The other contenders for the state meet berths are simply grabbed from Tullyrunners:

1. Nicole Bubie Odyssey
2. Meghan Curtin Wayland-Cohocton 
3. Evelyn Pinneo Penn Yan 
4. Hannah Groshner Wayland-Cohocton 
5. Sarah Donovan Byron-Bergen 
6. Lauren Cook Bath-Haverling 
7. Maggie Callan Leroy 
8. McKenzie Bennett Dansville 
9. Kim Lovett Byron-Bergen 
10. RaYanne Luke Williamson 
11. Rebecca Schwan LeRoy  

Class C Boys

The Wayland-Cohocton boys should make it a sweep for the school in Class C.  They are the only C team in the section that are currently ranked in the state.  I'm trying to find a team that could be even close.  Williamson won the Wayne County meet with a nice race, but they were about 130 points behind Way-Co at McQuaid.  Way-Co was well off their best performance at their league meet last weekend - I assume that was intentional.

Top dozen individuals, strictly purloined from Tully:

1. David Smith Holley 
2. Tim McGowan Dansville 
3. Brandon Selbig Wayland-Cohocton 
4. Jon Beiswanger Williamson 
5. Jacob Bailey Williamson 
6. Martin Beadle Holley 
7. Jeff Mangiafesto Greece Odyssey 
8. Jacob Champlin Marcus Whitman 
9. Randi Rudnik Pembroke 
10. Aaron Kelly Wayland-Cohocton 
11. Brett Barden Dansville 
12. Charlie Flagg Wayland-Cohocton 

Monroe County Championships - Girls Preview

WARNING (or plea): DO NOT PARK ON THE GRASS AT PARMA PARK!

Although Penfield is only ranked one spot behind Canandaigua in the NY State rankings (#4 vs. #3), it is clear that Canandaigua has a large advantage in runners 3 thru 5, and should win comfortably.  In fact, the computer analysis slides not only HF-L (#4 in Class B), but R-H (#9 in Class A) ahead of Penfield as well.  Mendon (9th in Class B) is expected to round out the top five.  As with the boys, it will be interesting to see which teams may decide to sit this one out.

1. Canandaigua 84 
2. Honeoye Falls Lima 100 
3. Rush Henrietta 121 
4. Penfield 127 
5. Mendon 165 
6. Schroeder 197 
7. Fairport 216 
8. Hilton 229 
9. Thomas 232 
10. Victor 258 
11. Irondequoit 261 
12. Sutherland 308 
13. Brighton 318 
14. Churchville Chili 405 
15. Athena 423 
16. Brockport 433 
17. East Irondequoit 488 
18. Odyssey 522 
19. Batavia 581 
20. Spencerport 625 
21. Gates Chili 663 
22. East Rochester 705 
23. Arcadia inc 
24. Olympia inc  

The individual race could be quite interesting.  The Penfield duo of Leila Mantilla and Katie Lembo have looked like the best all year, until the final league meet against Canandaigua, when they were split by Meghan McCormick and Kennedy Jensen.  While Leila just destroyed the Parma course record set by Meghan last year (18:28 to 19:03), Katie was 30 seconds back.  But last Saturday, Katie was the winner at the Clarence invitational, winning by 23 seconds in a very fast 18:55.

The top 40 girls look like this:

1. Mantilla, Leila Penfield 
2. Lembo, Katie Penfield 
3. McCormick, Meghan Canandaigua 
4. Jensen, Kennedy Canandaigua 
5. Palermo, Val Schroeder 
6. Paratore, Amanda Schroeder 
7. McCormick, Kate Canandaigua 
8. Hallock, Allison Mendon 
9. Engel, Katie Honeoye Falls Lima 
10. O'Neill, Karli Churchville Chili 
11. Cole, Hannah Honeoye Falls Lima 
12. Tuttle, Georgia Irondequoit 
13. Albrecht, Autumn Brockport 
14. Steinke, Ruth Honeoye Falls Lima 
15. Bubie, Nicole Odyssey 
16. Sedita, Erin Fairport 
17. Wagner, Robin Brighton 
18. Hughes, Ashton Fairport 
19. Tate, Tiffany Irondequoit
20. O'Hara, Eileen Thomas 
21. Lawler, Maggie Victor 
22. Douglas, Riley Honeoye Falls Lima
23. Greiner, Lizzie Rush Henrietta 
24. MacDonald, Alana Rush Henrietta 
25. O'Hara, Shannon Thomas 
26. Williams, Jenna Honeoye Falls Lima 
27. Griffin, Tishae Rush Henrietta 
28. Quinn, Siobhan Rush Henrietta 
29. Keene, Haley Hilton
30. Heyer, Lindsay Penfield 
31. Palmeri, Amanda Hilton 
32. Bailey, Alaina Schroeder 
33. D'Amore, Lauren Canandaigua 
34. Greiner, Becky Rush Henrietta
35. Ryan, Kylie Mendon 
36. Yancey, Colleen Mendon 
37. Dehm, Olivia Victor 
38. Bourcy, Abby Penfield 
39. Schnaufer, Illana Penfield 
40. D'Amore, Kendall Canandaigua

Monroe County Championship - Boys Preview

First, here is some important information about the meet.

• It has been moved to Parma Park, directions from Schroeder are here:

View Larger Map

• The meet schedule is as follows:

11:15  Modified Girls 

11:45  Modified Boys 

1:00  JV Girls (all non-varsity Schroeder girls running here)

1:30  JV Boys (all non-varsity Schroeder boys in grades 9/10 running here)

2:00  Varsity Girls 

2:30  Varsity Boys 

3:00  Varsity “B” Girls 

3:30  Varsity “B” Boys (all non-varsity Schroeder boys in grades 11/12 running here)

• Wear waterproof footwear; it will be very wet/muddy in the best spectator areas

Now, for the predictions - today will be the Boys Varsity race.  This is difficult, because it is quite possible that some teams will not run their varsity this week, with more concern about Sectionals and beyond, and not wanting to risk something happening this weekend, given the conditions.

Rush-Henrietta is the overwhelming favorite, if they choose to participate.  Otherwise Mendon would likely be favored over HF-L (another team that may not appear on the starting line), despite losing to them in the dual meet last week, 26-29.  HF-L's 4th runner did not compete, but several of Mendon's runners did not seem to be putting forth a full effort.  Brighton would also have a decent shot, and Victor and Irondequoit could not be ruled out.  There are clear break points after the top 10 teams and after the top 15 - expect to see much movement within the three "groups" of teams, but not much across the boundaries (except where teams decide not to play).  Here is what the computer says:

1. Rush Henrietta 49
2. Mendon 91
3. Brighton 117
4. Victor 146
5. Honeoye Falls Lima 161
6. Irondequoit 177
7. Sutherland 189
8. Thomas 198
9. Fairport 212
10. Hilton 232
11. Penfield 337
12. Athena 365 
13. Batavia 377
14. Schroeder 379
15. Gates Chili 402
16. Canandaigua 470
17. Arcadia 502
18. Churchville Chili 527
19. Olympia 582
20. Brockport 639
21. Spencerport 650
22. Odyssey 670
23. East Rochester 672
24. East Irondequoit 688  

As for individuals, I think Mike Anvelt from Sutherland is the man to beat.  I think it is likely that the guys most likely to have a shot at beating him, Nate Kozyra, Andrew Sweeney and Mickey Burke from R-H, and Cooper Roach from HF-L, are the guys most likely to back off, or skip the race entirely.  M.J. Erb from Victor is a potential challenger, and I imagine Travis Jordon from Gates will be there to race.

If everyone runs, the top 40 could look like this (I have not added times to the prediction this year, because of the variability in the likely conditions at race time):

1. Anvelt, Mike Sutherland 
2.  Kozyra, Nate Rush Henrietta 
3.  Roach, Cooper Honeoye Falls Lima 
4.  Sweeney, Andrew Rush Henrietta 
5.  Burton, Will Mendon 
6.  Erb, M.J. Victor 
7.  Jordon, Travis Gates Chili 
8.  Burke, Mickey Rush Henrietta 
9.  VanVleck, Matt Mendon 
10.  Wesley, Jack Mendon 
11.  Ranke, Tyler Hilton 
12.  Raymond, Alex Rush Henrietta 
13.  Hayward, Connor Victor 
14.  Pavia, Corey Mendon 
15.  Goldstein, Josh Thomas 
16.  Scott, Jack Fairport 
17.  Dyrland, Josh Irondequoit 
18.  Phelan, Will Sutherland 
19.  Mullen, Andrew Brighton 
20.  Mulcahy, Collin Batavia 
21.  Ronchetti, Will Brighton 
22.  Burke, Colby Rush Henrietta 
23.  Andrievsky, Sasha Thomas 
24.  Moran, Mitch Penfield 
25.  Stahl, Eric Brighton 
26.  Roth, Corey Hilton 
27.  Kassu, Mintesinot Athena 
28.  Brunett, Joe Honeoye Falls Lima 
29.  Koss, Nick Irondequoit 
30.  Green, Connor Mendon 
31.  Paganelli, JT Honeoye Falls Lima 
32.  Tarduno, Matthew Brighton 
33.  Root, Brennan Rush Henrietta 
34.  Bigenwald, Eric Irondequoit 
35.  Shanahan, Luke Victor 
36.  Tshibangu, Raphael Olympia 
37.  Young, Robert Mendon 
38.  Burgin, Will Schroeder 
39.  White, Jimmy Fairport 
40.  Strang, Alex Sutherland  

Girls predictions coming tomorrow...