Webster Distance Runners: Monroe County Championship

First, here is some important information about the meet.

It has been moved to Parma Park, directions from Schroeder are here:

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The meet schedule is as follows:

11:15 Modified Girls

11:45 Modified Boys

1:00 JV Girls (all non-varsity Schroeder girls running here)

1:30 JV Boys (all non-varsity Schroeder boys in grades 9/10 running here)

2:00 Varsity Girls

2:30 Varsity Boys

3:00 Varsity “B” Girls

3:30 Varsity “B” Boys (all non-varsity Schroeder boys in grades 11/12 running here)

Wear waterproof footwear; it will be very wet/muddy in the best spectator areas

Now, for the predictions - today will be the Boys Varsity race. This is difficult, because it is quite possible that some teams will not run their varsity this week, with more concern about Sectionals and beyond, and not wanting to risk something happening this weekend, given the conditions.

Rush-Henrietta is the overwhelming favorite, if they choose to participate. Otherwise Mendon would likely be favored over HF-L (another team that may not appear on the starting line), despite losing to them in the dual meet last week, 26-29. HF-L's 4th runner did not compete, but several of Mendon's runners did not seem to be putting forth a full effort. Brighton would also have a decent shot, and Victor and Irondequoit could not be ruled out. There are clear break points after the top 10 teams and after the top 15 - expect to see much movement within the three "groups" of teams, but not much across the boundaries (except where teams decide not to play). Here is what the computer says:

Rush Henrietta 49
Mendon 91
Brighton 117
Victor 146
Honeoye Falls Lima 161
Irondequoit 177
Sutherland 189
Thomas 198
Fairport 212
Hilton 232
Penfield 337
Athena 365
Batavia 377
Schroeder 379
Gates Chili 402
Canandaigua 470
Arcadia 502
Churchville Chili 527
Olympia 582
Brockport 639
Spencerport 650
Odyssey 670
East Rochester 672
East Irondequoit 688

As for individuals, I think Mike Anvelt from Sutherland is the man to beat. I think it is likely that the guys most likely to have a shot at beating him, Nate Kozyra, Andrew Sweeney and Mickey Burke from R-H, and Cooper Roach from HF-L, are the guys most likely to back off, or skip the race entirely. M.J. Erb from Victor is a potential challenger, and I imagine Travis Jordon from Gates will be there to race.

If everyone runs, the top 40 could look like this (I have not added times to the prediction this year, because of the variability in the likely conditions at race time):