Monroe County XC Preview - Girls Individuals

Before I get to the individuals, we need to take another look at the girls team scores. The computer was crying about inconsistent and sexist analysis, so I went back and provided the same methodology for the girls that was used for the boys. This resulted in a small number of changes to the order - most notably, it shows HF-L has a slight edge over Canandaigua. And for Schroeder, it shows we are right in the mix with Gates and Churchville (actually, ahead of Churchville on the tie-breaking sixth runner). Here are the updated predictions:

Honeoye Falls Lima 50
Canandaigua 56
Mendon 124
Fairport 140
Hilton 157
Rush Henrietta 171
Thomas 210
Penfield 218
Sutherland 255
Brighton 278
Irondequoit 351
Victor 360
Spencerport 375
Athena 403
Brockport 436
Gates Chili 464
Schroeder 472
Churchville Chili 472
Olympia 511
Odyssey 595
East Irondequoit 648
East Rochester 666
Arcadia 698
Batavia inc

Now for the individuals. Since this is a brand new course, the computer tells me it is unable to generate time predictions. And with an uncertain amount of rain coming Friday and early Saturday, historical times may not be particularly useful anyway. The top is pretty clear, as there have been three girls showing complete domination. Shaylyn should win, followed by Amanda and Brianna. Then things get interesting as there are about 20 girls who went under 19 at McQuaid, or could have. It looks like the top 34 (where did that number come from???) will make All-County, and the computer is predicting this list:

1 Tuite, Shaylyn Mendon
2 Moreland, Amanda Honeoye Falls Lima
3 Deming, Brianna Thomas
4 Hughes, Ashton Fairport
5 McCormick, Kate Canandaigua
6 Brunett, Jessie Honeoye Falls Lima
7 Malone, Rachel Fairport
8 Mack, Kellie Canandaigua
9 Steinke, Ruth Honeoye Falls Lima
10 Cocchiara, Amanda Hilton
11 McCormick, Meghan Canandaigua
12 D'Amore, Kendall Canandaigua
13 Jarvela, Angela Batavia
14 Hallock, Allison Mendon
15 Lembo, Katie Penfield
16 Robinson, Jodi Rush Henrietta
17 Cole, Hannah Honeoye Falls Lima
18 Hoh, Allison Honeoye Falls Lima
19 List, Rebecca Hilton
20 Maffett, Megan Spencerport
21 D'Amore, Lauren Canandaigua
22 Rosenthal, Jane Fairport
23 Greiner, Lizzie Rush Henrietta
24 Engle, Katie Honeoye Falls Lima
25 Beiter, Kaylin Honeoye Falls Lima
26 Atkins, Morgan Mendon
27 Tuttle, Georgia Irondequoit
28 Colon, Christina Thomas
29 Greiner, Becky Rush Henrietta
30 Lawler, Maggie Victor
31 Cymerman, Amy Sutherland
32 Lenhardt, Carly Fairport
33 Palmeri, Emily Hilton
34 Mantilla, Leila Penfield

Val just misses this list, based solely on McQuaid performances as her overall ranking is 32nd. Here is where the Schroeder Varsity girls are expected to finish:

38. Palermo, Val
95. Bay, Anneliese
112. Bailey, Alaina (if she were running the varsity race)
114. Edwards, Katie
117. Mills, Sarah
120. Kuitems, Karen
123. Hight, Ann