I had to increase the robustness of the computer algorithm to calculate the predictions on the boys side. There has been a great deal of "loafing" in league meets by many runners, so the overall rating is not the best indicator of the most likely results. I sprinkled a little extra into the broth, and the results make much more sense.
Given the inputs that I provided, the computer says the boys team scores will look like this:
Rush Henrietta 75
Honeoye Falls Lima 132
Brighton 156
Mendon 159
Hilton 161
Schroeder 194
Sutherland 201
Irondequoit 232
Thomas 246
Penfield 255
Victor 261
Odyssey 320
Brockport 363
Fairport 382
Gates Chili 404
Batavia 438
Arcadia 471
Churchville Chili 490
Spencerport 537
Olympia 564
Canandaigua 596
Athena 611
East Rochester 674
East Irondequoit 800
As with the girls, some teams may be looking past the County Meet, so we may see some variation due to that. I do expect R-H to win comfortably over HF-L, as HF-L's 5th man should post a much higher score than R-H's. The three-way battle for 3rd seems to be among Brighton, Mendon and Hilton. The computer says Brighton, but I think Mendon will sneak in, setting up the rematch to see who will place second to McQuaid at Sectionals. Schroeder seems to have a slight edge on Sutherland for 6th, followed by a pack of teams to close out the top 10 plus one.
At the other end of the race, East Irondequoit has a very good shot at setting a record for the highest score in Monroe County history, enabled by the growth to 24 teams. When there were just 21 teams, the highest possible score was 715 and last year, with 22 teams, the highest possible was 750.
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