MC Boys - Part I

The battle of the unbeaten, at Webster Park 10 days ago, was expected to be an outstanding meet, and it did not disappoint. The County meet appears to be poised to be even better. Have the top 4 teams really left Penfield and R-H behind? Or, can they also be in the mix (R-H with their depth, but have lacked front-runners; Penfield with their front runners, but no 5th man, so far)?

The top 4 teams will be locked in a very tight battle. I have run the computer ratings of all participants, and the top 4 stack up like this:

Brighton 87
Thomas 102
Brockport 108
Mendon 113


The computer is a little slow to pick up on trends, so I've helped it a little bit. For example, Mendon's 4th and 5th runners put in very good runs at Webster Park, well beyond what they had done in competition prior to that. Also, Matiucci of Thomas seems to be back to almost 100% from his long injury. So, I've moved them up in the rankings. Some other small changes were made, based on the meet at Webster Park. The end result is my predicted team scores which follow.

There can be wide variation in the scores at the County meet. With the peak finish density exceeding 1 place per second, just a 10 second change in relative performance can mean +/- 12 points to the team score. That being said, I'm picking Thomas to win. That is predicated on solid performances by their youngsters, Rousell and DeClerck (who came within 1-second of Mendon's 4th man, who sealed the win for Mendon at Webster Park). Brighton's pack doesn't seem to be quite quick enough to catch the top 2 teams, but they have 7 contenders for top 30 finishes, whereas Thomas has 5 and Mendon, probably only 4.

In the battle for 7-12, Irondequoit, Fairport and Sutherland have the edge, because they have consistently had decent performances from their 4th and 5th runners, which has not been true for Athena, Schroeder and Arcadia.

Thomas 84
Mendon 96
Brighton 99
Brockport 107
Penfield 130
Rush Henrietta 136
Irondequoit 242
Fairport 256
Sutherland 268
Athena 289
Schroeder 309
Arcadia 310
Hilton 357
Spencerport 361
Victor 381
Odyssey 403
Gates Chili 448
Olympia 496
Churchville Chili 604
Batavia 612
East Rochester 689
East Irondequoit inc