Monday, September 15, 2008

Tomorrow's Meet

On the girls side, Brighton is 9-0 and Fairport is 8-0, but neither are as good as 7-0 Mendon, who we face later. Penfield is 5-2, so I don't think our record will improve this week. Fairport's top returning girl, Jenn Spitzer has not run this year, but they may still go 1-2-3 tomorrow - last week their 3rd girl was 21:11 at Harris Whalen and their 6th girl was 22:02. The first week their 5th girl was 22:10 at Parma. Brighton runs a pretty tight pack - their 5th girl was under 23 minutes at Mendon East the first week. Penfield isn't quite as strong, but Alaina would do well to finish ahead of their 4th and 5th runners.

Last year our girls ran the following times at Mendon West:
Alaina - 22:51 (computer predicts 23:22 this year)
Janelle - 23:08 (25:05)
Sarah M - 24:44 (25:14)
Hannah - 26:24 (26:29)
Khristyna - 26:45 (25:55)
Sarah W - 29:35 (27:21)

The computer does not know that we are in better shape than we were for the first two meets, so we should expect some faster times.

The other boys teams also have outstanding records: Brighton, 9-0; Penfield, 6-1; Fairport, 6-2. At this point in the season, Brighton appears to be the best team in Section V. Penfield is the defending Class AA champs. So, we'll keep our focus on Fairport. Based on the times run so far this year, Fairport would trounce us 21-40. We can do significantly better than that. Adding Nico and having solid runs from the first five runners across the line can put us in upset territory.

Some times from last year:
Nate - 18:03
Nico - 18:03
Chris - 18:16
Kenny - 18:19
AJ - 19:06
Wade - 19:08

The computer expects Fairport to run the following:
A. Rice - 17:24
Rowe & Korts around 18:10
E. Rice - 18:22
Mitchell - 18:32
6-8 pack - 18:52

If all falls in place for us, we could go 1-2-4-9-10, for a 26-29 win, so we need a close-to-perfect team race, with a solid run by Nate, Chris and whoever steps up to be our 5th man.

The individual race could be interesting between Penfield's Greg Redfield and Brighton's David Geary. Both are capable of running down around 16:30 on this course. Brighton has another runner that could challenge the 17 minute barrier.

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