Here are the top 68 boys (leading contenders for first and second team All-County), as ranked by the computer:
1 Mangan, Steve Honeoye Falls Lima
2 Deir, Alex Honeoye Falls Lima
3 Vanvleck, Adam Mendon
4 Rousell, Jared Thomas
5 Looby, Ricky Irondequoit
6 Kozyra, Nate Rush Henrietta
7 Smolensky, Scotty Brighton
8 Hotchkiss, Brian Rush Henrietta
9 Erb, M.J. Victor
10 Eustance, Tyler Hilton
11 Piacentini, Anthony Schroeder
12 Lipani, Lou Arcadia
13 Hoose, Kevin Honeoye Falls Lima
14 Jones, Jesse Brockport
15 Mateer, Tim Thomas
16 Gumina, Tyler Penfield
17 Kandt, Joel Brockport
18 Reid, Kyle Victor
19 Burke, Colby Rush Henrietta
20 Fischer, Sean Sutherland
21 Newton, Trevor Rush Henrietta
22 Nasello, AJ Schroeder
23 Raymond, Alex Rush Henrietta
24 Heckman, Aaron Odyssey
25 Talpey, Greg Brighton
26 DeClerck, Cole Thomas
27 Lyons, Nate Schroeder
28 Hospers, Jamie Penfield
29 Pirnie, Andrew Hilton
30 Sauln, Brad Rush Henrietta
31 Cuddeback, Brad Hilton
32 Dworkin, Jordan Sutherland
33 Hallock, Billy Mendon
34 Coons, Joe Brighton
35 Zimmerman, Tyler Odyssey
36 VanVleck, Matt Mendon
37 Sweeney, Andrew Rush Henrietta
38 Jablonski, Kevin Fairport
39 Zeccola, Andrew Mendon
40 Holbrook, Austin Olympia
41 Miller, Evan Mendon
42 DiMartino, Nate Hilton
43 Mullen, Jake Brighton
44 Tobey, Kevin Gates Chili
45 Cleeton, Ben Sutherland
46 Ramsdell, Tommy Honeoye Falls Lima
47 Schwalm, Steve Gates Chili
48 McCullough, Ryan Brighton
49 Knapp, JonMichael Arcadia
50 Campbell, Paul Hilton
51 Tyler, Terrence Sutherland
52 Bigenwald, Eric Irondequoit
53 Anvelt, Mike Sutherland
54 Silverstein, Brian Brighton
55 Koss, Nick Irondequoit
56 Stahl, Eric Brighton
57 Enright, Connor Irondequoit
58 Hayward, Connor Victor
59 King, Dan Batavia
60 Hayden, Rob Sutherland
61 Sweazy, Shaun Brockport
63 Mclaughlin, Ian Irondequoit
63 Tillery, Kevin Batavia
64 Hamouda, Adrian Schroeder
65 Phelan, Will Sutherland
66 Whittemore, Steve Schroeder
67 Roach, Cooper Honeoye Falls Lima
68 Carroll, Frank Odyssey
Friday, October 30, 2009
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Monroe County XC Preview - Girls Individuals
Before I get to the individuals, we need to take another look at the girls team scores. The computer was crying about inconsistent and sexist analysis, so I went back and provided the same methodology for the girls that was used for the boys. This resulted in a small number of changes to the order - most notably, it shows HF-L has a slight edge over Canandaigua. And for Schroeder, it shows we are right in the mix with Gates and Churchville (actually, ahead of Churchville on the tie-breaking sixth runner). Here are the updated predictions:
Honeoye Falls Lima 50
Canandaigua 56
Mendon 124
Fairport 140
Hilton 157
Rush Henrietta 171
Thomas 210
Penfield 218
Sutherland 255
Brighton 278
Irondequoit 351
Victor 360
Spencerport 375
Athena 403
Brockport 436
Gates Chili 464
Schroeder 472
Churchville Chili 472
Olympia 511
Odyssey 595
East Irondequoit 648
East Rochester 666
Arcadia 698
Batavia inc
Now for the individuals. Since this is a brand new course, the computer tells me it is unable to generate time predictions. And with an uncertain amount of rain coming Friday and early Saturday, historical times may not be particularly useful anyway. The top is pretty clear, as there have been three girls showing complete domination. Shaylyn should win, followed by Amanda and Brianna. Then things get interesting as there are about 20 girls who went under 19 at McQuaid, or could have. It looks like the top 34 (where did that number come from???) will make All-County, and the computer is predicting this list:
1 Tuite, Shaylyn Mendon
2 Moreland, Amanda Honeoye Falls Lima
3 Deming, Brianna Thomas
4 Hughes, Ashton Fairport
5 McCormick, Kate Canandaigua
6 Brunett, Jessie Honeoye Falls Lima
7 Malone, Rachel Fairport
8 Mack, Kellie Canandaigua
9 Steinke, Ruth Honeoye Falls Lima
10 Cocchiara, Amanda Hilton
11 McCormick, Meghan Canandaigua
12 D'Amore, Kendall Canandaigua
13 Jarvela, Angela Batavia
14 Hallock, Allison Mendon
15 Lembo, Katie Penfield
16 Robinson, Jodi Rush Henrietta
17 Cole, Hannah Honeoye Falls Lima
18 Hoh, Allison Honeoye Falls Lima
19 List, Rebecca Hilton
20 Maffett, Megan Spencerport
21 D'Amore, Lauren Canandaigua
22 Rosenthal, Jane Fairport
23 Greiner, Lizzie Rush Henrietta
24 Engle, Katie Honeoye Falls Lima
25 Beiter, Kaylin Honeoye Falls Lima
26 Atkins, Morgan Mendon
27 Tuttle, Georgia Irondequoit
28 Colon, Christina Thomas
29 Greiner, Becky Rush Henrietta
30 Lawler, Maggie Victor
31 Cymerman, Amy Sutherland
32 Lenhardt, Carly Fairport
33 Palmeri, Emily Hilton
34 Mantilla, Leila Penfield
Val just misses this list, based solely on McQuaid performances as her overall ranking is 32nd. Here is where the Schroeder Varsity girls are expected to finish:
38. Palermo, Val
95. Bay, Anneliese
112. Bailey, Alaina (if she were running the varsity race)
114. Edwards, Katie
117. Mills, Sarah
120. Kuitems, Karen
123. Hight, Ann
Honeoye Falls Lima 50
Canandaigua 56
Mendon 124
Fairport 140
Hilton 157
Rush Henrietta 171
Thomas 210
Penfield 218
Sutherland 255
Brighton 278
Irondequoit 351
Victor 360
Spencerport 375
Athena 403
Brockport 436
Gates Chili 464
Schroeder 472
Churchville Chili 472
Olympia 511
Odyssey 595
East Irondequoit 648
East Rochester 666
Arcadia 698
Batavia inc
Now for the individuals. Since this is a brand new course, the computer tells me it is unable to generate time predictions. And with an uncertain amount of rain coming Friday and early Saturday, historical times may not be particularly useful anyway. The top is pretty clear, as there have been three girls showing complete domination. Shaylyn should win, followed by Amanda and Brianna. Then things get interesting as there are about 20 girls who went under 19 at McQuaid, or could have. It looks like the top 34 (where did that number come from???) will make All-County, and the computer is predicting this list:
1 Tuite, Shaylyn Mendon
2 Moreland, Amanda Honeoye Falls Lima
3 Deming, Brianna Thomas
4 Hughes, Ashton Fairport
5 McCormick, Kate Canandaigua
6 Brunett, Jessie Honeoye Falls Lima
7 Malone, Rachel Fairport
8 Mack, Kellie Canandaigua
9 Steinke, Ruth Honeoye Falls Lima
10 Cocchiara, Amanda Hilton
11 McCormick, Meghan Canandaigua
12 D'Amore, Kendall Canandaigua
13 Jarvela, Angela Batavia
14 Hallock, Allison Mendon
15 Lembo, Katie Penfield
16 Robinson, Jodi Rush Henrietta
17 Cole, Hannah Honeoye Falls Lima
18 Hoh, Allison Honeoye Falls Lima
19 List, Rebecca Hilton
20 Maffett, Megan Spencerport
21 D'Amore, Lauren Canandaigua
22 Rosenthal, Jane Fairport
23 Greiner, Lizzie Rush Henrietta
24 Engle, Katie Honeoye Falls Lima
25 Beiter, Kaylin Honeoye Falls Lima
26 Atkins, Morgan Mendon
27 Tuttle, Georgia Irondequoit
28 Colon, Christina Thomas
29 Greiner, Becky Rush Henrietta
30 Lawler, Maggie Victor
31 Cymerman, Amy Sutherland
32 Lenhardt, Carly Fairport
33 Palmeri, Emily Hilton
34 Mantilla, Leila Penfield
Val just misses this list, based solely on McQuaid performances as her overall ranking is 32nd. Here is where the Schroeder Varsity girls are expected to finish:
38. Palermo, Val
95. Bay, Anneliese
112. Bailey, Alaina (if she were running the varsity race)
114. Edwards, Katie
117. Mills, Sarah
120. Kuitems, Karen
123. Hight, Ann
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Monroe County Preview - Boys Teams
I had to increase the robustness of the computer algorithm to calculate the predictions on the boys side. There has been a great deal of "loafing" in league meets by many runners, so the overall rating is not the best indicator of the most likely results. I sprinkled a little extra into the broth, and the results make much more sense.
Given the inputs that I provided, the computer says the boys team scores will look like this:
Rush Henrietta 75
Honeoye Falls Lima 132
Brighton 156
Mendon 159
Hilton 161
Schroeder 194
Sutherland 201
Irondequoit 232
Thomas 246
Penfield 255
Victor 261
Odyssey 320
Brockport 363
Fairport 382
Gates Chili 404
Batavia 438
Arcadia 471
Churchville Chili 490
Spencerport 537
Olympia 564
Canandaigua 596
Athena 611
East Rochester 674
East Irondequoit 800
As with the girls, some teams may be looking past the County Meet, so we may see some variation due to that. I do expect R-H to win comfortably over HF-L, as HF-L's 5th man should post a much higher score than R-H's. The three-way battle for 3rd seems to be among Brighton, Mendon and Hilton. The computer says Brighton, but I think Mendon will sneak in, setting up the rematch to see who will place second to McQuaid at Sectionals. Schroeder seems to have a slight edge on Sutherland for 6th, followed by a pack of teams to close out the top 10 plus one.
At the other end of the race, East Irondequoit has a very good shot at setting a record for the highest score in Monroe County history, enabled by the growth to 24 teams. When there were just 21 teams, the highest possible score was 715 and last year, with 22 teams, the highest possible was 750.
Given the inputs that I provided, the computer says the boys team scores will look like this:
Rush Henrietta 75
Honeoye Falls Lima 132
Brighton 156
Mendon 159
Hilton 161
Schroeder 194
Sutherland 201
Irondequoit 232
Thomas 246
Penfield 255
Victor 261
Odyssey 320
Brockport 363
Fairport 382
Gates Chili 404
Batavia 438
Arcadia 471
Churchville Chili 490
Spencerport 537
Olympia 564
Canandaigua 596
Athena 611
East Rochester 674
East Irondequoit 800
As with the girls, some teams may be looking past the County Meet, so we may see some variation due to that. I do expect R-H to win comfortably over HF-L, as HF-L's 5th man should post a much higher score than R-H's. The three-way battle for 3rd seems to be among Brighton, Mendon and Hilton. The computer says Brighton, but I think Mendon will sneak in, setting up the rematch to see who will place second to McQuaid at Sectionals. Schroeder seems to have a slight edge on Sutherland for 6th, followed by a pack of teams to close out the top 10 plus one.
At the other end of the race, East Irondequoit has a very good shot at setting a record for the highest score in Monroe County history, enabled by the growth to 24 teams. When there were just 21 teams, the highest possible score was 715 and last year, with 22 teams, the highest possible was 750.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Monroe County Preview - Girls Teams
OK, the computer has been fed all sorts of results from 2009, and is poised to make some predictions for the Monroe County Championship meet on Saturday. First up are the girls team scores.
It looks to be a two team battle between Canandaigua and HF-L for the win. The Section V coaches have HF-L ranked #1, but the computer says Canandaigua. Mendon usually outperforms at Counties (as does R-H), so it may not be quite as large a margin as the computer predicts. It will be interesting to see how much effort the top teams put forth, with Canandaigua and Mendon looking ahead to their Class A matchup at Sectionals; the same with Fairport, RH and Hilton in Class AA (with Thomas and Penfield needing to show they belong in the top group. And there is no doubt HF-L is already looking ahead to the state meet
In the Schroeder part of the standings, Churchville, Gates and even Brockport are well within reach, dependent upon a strong showing by our 2-5 runners.
Canandaigua 56
Honeoye Falls Lima 66
Mendon 128
Fairport 146
Rush Henrietta 151
Hilton 172
Thomas 211
Penfield 225
Sutherland 258
Brighton 277
Victor 340
Irondequoit 352
Athena 380
Spencerport 400
Brockport 440
Gates Chili 468
Churchville Chili 471
Schroeder 483
Olympia 527
Odyssey 584
East Rochester 665
Arcadia 701
East Irondequoit inc
Batavia inc
It looks to be a two team battle between Canandaigua and HF-L for the win. The Section V coaches have HF-L ranked #1, but the computer says Canandaigua. Mendon usually outperforms at Counties (as does R-H), so it may not be quite as large a margin as the computer predicts. It will be interesting to see how much effort the top teams put forth, with Canandaigua and Mendon looking ahead to their Class A matchup at Sectionals; the same with Fairport, RH and Hilton in Class AA (with Thomas and Penfield needing to show they belong in the top group. And there is no doubt HF-L is already looking ahead to the state meet
In the Schroeder part of the standings, Churchville, Gates and even Brockport are well within reach, dependent upon a strong showing by our 2-5 runners.
Canandaigua 56
Honeoye Falls Lima 66
Mendon 128
Fairport 146
Rush Henrietta 151
Hilton 172
Thomas 211
Penfield 225
Sutherland 258
Brighton 277
Victor 340
Irondequoit 352
Athena 380
Spencerport 400
Brockport 440
Gates Chili 468
Churchville Chili 471
Schroeder 483
Olympia 527
Odyssey 584
East Rochester 665
Arcadia 701
East Irondequoit inc
Batavia inc
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Taper Week Begins
Attendance at practice will be important this week, as we complete our taper for the County Meet, which is the final race of the season for most of the team. Finding the balance between working too hard and taking it too easy is best done as a group.
On one extreme, someone could take the whole week completely off, thinking that would make them fully rested for Saturday's race. Scientific research shows that this does not lead to good performances, and my experience is consistent with that: the legs can feel flat after so much time off, and some fitness does disappear after as few as 3 days off.
On the other extreme, running hard every day would clearly set one up for a tough time on Saturday. As we've seen in some of our weekend performances, even a particularly hard workout on Thursday can negatively affect a Saturday race.
Our dual meet success has been clear this fall. Dual meets usually follow a Saturday race, a Sunday easy day (or day off for most of the team) and a Monday easy day. For the runners that have not earned a guaranteed Sectional roster spot, we will simulate that a bit, with our last workout on Wednesday (think Cruise Intervals), an easy tour of the County course on Thursday and an easy jog on Friday. This means we will also do a workout on Monday, but don't be alarmed!
Last Thursday's workout was great, and yesterday's run demonstrated that we are well-positioned as we enter this final week. Get plenty of sleep, stay healthy and I am confident that we will see some excellent performances on Saturday!
On one extreme, someone could take the whole week completely off, thinking that would make them fully rested for Saturday's race. Scientific research shows that this does not lead to good performances, and my experience is consistent with that: the legs can feel flat after so much time off, and some fitness does disappear after as few as 3 days off.
On the other extreme, running hard every day would clearly set one up for a tough time on Saturday. As we've seen in some of our weekend performances, even a particularly hard workout on Thursday can negatively affect a Saturday race.
Our dual meet success has been clear this fall. Dual meets usually follow a Saturday race, a Sunday easy day (or day off for most of the team) and a Monday easy day. For the runners that have not earned a guaranteed Sectional roster spot, we will simulate that a bit, with our last workout on Wednesday (think Cruise Intervals), an easy tour of the County course on Thursday and an easy jog on Friday. This means we will also do a workout on Monday, but don't be alarmed!
Last Thursday's workout was great, and yesterday's run demonstrated that we are well-positioned as we enter this final week. Get plenty of sleep, stay healthy and I am confident that we will see some excellent performances on Saturday!
Friday, October 23, 2009
Regular Season is Over!
A very successful regular season has come to a close, so it is time to get ready for the Championship meets. First, let's take a look at the regular season results.
Teams
The Boys finished 19-4 - not sure when Schroeder last won 19 meets (if we have, it would have been in an undefeated season, prior to the split). This put us in a tie for 5th with Mendon. The teams with fewer losses were HF-L (1), RH (2), Brighton (3), and Hilton (3, 1 to us).
The Girls finished 9-14, well above expectations. That marks the 4th time in the last 5 years that the girls managed 9 wins - let's see if we can get double digits next year!
On the invitational front, the boys had huge wins at McQuaid and Alden (beating St. Joe's, again, who is ranked #2 in Section VI).
Individuals
Val made the 2009 top 10 list for Harris Whalen Park (6th, 20:52). This was also the 14th best time in the 5 years they've kept records. Val is now the only Schroeder girl to appear on one of the Top 25 all time lists.
Nico and AJ made the list at Center Park (4th and 5th in 17:23 and 17:25), and are currently 16th and 19th all time (joining John Hohl, who had been the only Schroeder runner on any top 25 list). Nico, Nate and AJ all made the list at Harris Whalen (2nd, 4th and 5th in 17:13, 17:25 and 17:26) - also good for 8th, 19th and 20th overall. Nico also made the Mendon East 6th in 17:26) and Parma (9th in 17:30) lists, but missed the top 25 lists by 8 seconds and 3 seconds.
Nico and Nate just missed at Black Creek with their 17:19s, as 17:18 was 10th (and 17:16 is 25th overall). And Nico just missed at Webster (16:43, 10th was 16:40 just this week).
Teams
The Boys finished 19-4 - not sure when Schroeder last won 19 meets (if we have, it would have been in an undefeated season, prior to the split). This put us in a tie for 5th with Mendon. The teams with fewer losses were HF-L (1), RH (2), Brighton (3), and Hilton (3, 1 to us).
The Girls finished 9-14, well above expectations. That marks the 4th time in the last 5 years that the girls managed 9 wins - let's see if we can get double digits next year!
On the invitational front, the boys had huge wins at McQuaid and Alden (beating St. Joe's, again, who is ranked #2 in Section VI).
Individuals
Val made the 2009 top 10 list for Harris Whalen Park (6th, 20:52). This was also the 14th best time in the 5 years they've kept records. Val is now the only Schroeder girl to appear on one of the Top 25 all time lists.
Nico and AJ made the list at Center Park (4th and 5th in 17:23 and 17:25), and are currently 16th and 19th all time (joining John Hohl, who had been the only Schroeder runner on any top 25 list). Nico, Nate and AJ all made the list at Harris Whalen (2nd, 4th and 5th in 17:13, 17:25 and 17:26) - also good for 8th, 19th and 20th overall. Nico also made the Mendon East 6th in 17:26) and Parma (9th in 17:30) lists, but missed the top 25 lists by 8 seconds and 3 seconds.
Nico and Nate just missed at Black Creek with their 17:19s, as 17:18 was 10th (and 17:16 is 25th overall). And Nico just missed at Webster (16:43, 10th was 16:40 just this week).
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Toughest League in the State?
It's not just your imagination, we really do face a very difficult league schedule. On the girls side, the latest state rankings show a total of NINE Monroe County teams listed.
Hilton (11), R-H (19), Thomas (21) and Fairport (22) are all ranked in Class AA (so Penfield must be close). Canandaigua (3), Mendon (7), Brighton (8) and Sutherland (10) are in the top 10 in Class A, and HF-L is ranked #2 in Class B, just behind East Aurora, and 9th overall (just ahead of Canandaigua in 10th).
So, our girls are actually 8-5 against teams that are not ranked in the state, and we can make that 9-5 today.
The boys have also faced some stiff league competition, as 8 teams are mentioned in last week's state rankings. R-H is 10th in Class AA, while Hilton is called out as one of the "teams to watch". In Class A, Mendon (6), Brighton (8), Irondequoit (11) and Sutherland (16) are all ranked. It's interesting that Mendon is ranked ahead of Brighton (on the strength of their performance at McQuaid), as I have Brighton as the slight favorite in their meet today. The HF-L boys are matching the girls with a #2 ranking in Class B. And how about this: despite a league record of just 8-11, Odyssey has a well-deserved 12th ranking in Class C.
Hilton (11), R-H (19), Thomas (21) and Fairport (22) are all ranked in Class AA (so Penfield must be close). Canandaigua (3), Mendon (7), Brighton (8) and Sutherland (10) are in the top 10 in Class A, and HF-L is ranked #2 in Class B, just behind East Aurora, and 9th overall (just ahead of Canandaigua in 10th).
So, our girls are actually 8-5 against teams that are not ranked in the state, and we can make that 9-5 today.
The boys have also faced some stiff league competition, as 8 teams are mentioned in last week's state rankings. R-H is 10th in Class AA, while Hilton is called out as one of the "teams to watch". In Class A, Mendon (6), Brighton (8), Irondequoit (11) and Sutherland (16) are all ranked. It's interesting that Mendon is ranked ahead of Brighton (on the strength of their performance at McQuaid), as I have Brighton as the slight favorite in their meet today. The HF-L boys are matching the girls with a #2 ranking in Class B. And how about this: despite a league record of just 8-11, Odyssey has a well-deserved 12th ranking in Class C.
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