League Opener

Tomorrow we open our league schedule, so I'll provide a bit of a scouting report. First, we look back to the rankings after last season, and we see the top returning boys, in ranked order, along with their times at the County Meet last year:

1 Rousell, Jared Thomas 17:07
2 Looby, Ricky Irondequoit 17:31
3 Hotchkiss, Brian Rush Henrietta 17:25
4 DeClerck, Cole Thomas 17:40
5 Burke, Colby Rush Henrietta 17:53
6 Newton, Trevor Rush Henrietta 18:11
7 Sauln, Brad Rush Henrietta 17:56
8 Lyons, Nate Schroeder 18:29
9 Piacentini, Anthony Schroeder 18:21
10 Kozyra, Nate Rush Henrietta 18:02
11 Zimmerman, Tyler Odyssey 18:27
12 Heckman, Aaron Odyssey 18:22
13 Lumb, Ryan Rush Henrietta 19:03
14 Mclaughlin, Ian Irondequoit 18:16
15 Mateer, Tim Thomas 18:07
16 Jones, Jared Rush Henrietta 18:13
17 Haynes, Mitchell Rush Henrietta
18 Duguay, Ben Irondequoit 18:35
19 GONE
20 Sweeney, Andrew Rush Henrietta 18:58
21 Carroll, Frank Odyssey 19:19
22 Hair, Josh Rush Henrietta 20:12
23 Bigenwald, Eric Irondequoit 18:49
24 Brady, Sam Rush Henrietta 18:48
25 Nasello, AJ Schroeder
26 Koss, Nick Irondequoit 18:49
27 Rizzo, Rick Odyssey 19:59
28 Wilcox, Adam Rush Henrietta 19:17
29 Bubie, Adrian Odyssey 20:04
30 GONE
31 Whittemore, Steve Schroeder 20:35
32 Pellittieri, Joe Thomas 20:15
33 Densieski, Ben Irondequoit 20:25
34 Schum, Peter Irondequoit 19:42
35 Krawiec, Eric Schroeder 20:26
36 Bilsback, Evan Thomas 20:15

As you can see, we face a very large task the first week, against quality opponents. Based on the returning individuals, above, we obtain the following predicted scores:
R-H 17, Schroeder 44
Irondequoit 24, Schroeder 33
Thomas 26, Schroeder 29
Odyssey 27, Schroeder 28

The girls also face quality opposition. Here are the top ranked returning runners:

1 Deming, Brianna Thomas 19.93
2 Robinson, Jodi Rush Henrietta 20.12
3 Greiner, Lizzie Rush Henrietta 20.30
4 Colon, Christina Thomas 21.15
5 Cronmiller, Kristen Rush Henrietta 22.10
6 Putnam, Jessi Thomas
7 Farris, Jamie Thomas
8 Westrich, Taylor Odyssey 23.07
9 Nadeau, Sarah Irondequoit 23.33
10 Hinton, Shavonna Thomas
11 O'Hara, Shannon Thomas 22.82
12 Mazzo, Melissa Thomas 23.08
13 Halpin, Molly Thomas 23.87
14 Doherty, Alaina Schroeder 23.07
15 Milici, Stephanie Odyssey 24.52
16 Wegman, Emily Rush Henrietta 23.72
17 Muzdakis, Madeleine Irondequoit 24.02
18 Tomkinson, Lauren Rush Henrietta 23.87
19 Crocetti, Noelle Thomas 24.38
20 Rocco, Sarah Irondequoit 24.92
21 Rogers, Rebecca Rush Henrietta
22 Wheeler, Bridget Thomas 23.87
23 DeFranco, Carley Rush Henrietta 26.73
24 Bay, Anneliese Schroeder 23.80
25 Bubie, Nicole Odyssey 25.22
26 Dilai, Khristyna Schroeder 24.78
27 Buttram, Emily Rush Henrietta
28 Sagcan, Seyhan Rush Henrietta 25.05
29 Mills, Sarah Schroeder 25.28
30 Pruitt, Tess Rush Henrietta 24.63
31 Sammler, Aleni Irondequoit 25.53
32 Kuitems, Karen Schroeder
33 Paris, Marisa Rush Henrietta 25.32
34 Maldonado, Abby Thomas 25.90
35 Recchia, Alexandra Thomas 26.33
36 Valente, Liz Irondequoit 26.33
37 Ritter, Angelica Thomas 27.87
38 Sicker, Lauren Thomas 27.27
39 Jewell, Janelle Schroeder 27.37

Thomas 15, Schroeder 50
R-H 17, Schroeder 46
Irondequoit 26, Schroeder 29
Schroeder 27, Odyssey 29

Finally, Rush-Henrietta competed downstate at the Suffern invitational at Bear Mountain State Park. Results from that meet area available here. This is complete with Tully Runners' "Speed Ratings". The R-H Boys that ran were:
6 Brian Hotchkiss 12 Rush-Henrietta 16:42.02 164.0 164
12 Mitchell Haynes 12 Rush-Henrietta 17:08.26 155.2 155
17 Trevor Newton 12 Rush-Henrietta 17:22.20 150.6 151
25 Sam Brady 11 Rush-Henrietta 17:43.44 143.5 144
26 Ryan Lumb 12 Rush-Henrietta 17:45.37 142.9 143

And in the Sophomore race:
1 Colby Burke 10 Rush-Henrietta 16:53.96 160.0 160
2 Alex Raymond 10 Rush-Henrietta 16:59.01 158.3 158
3 Nate Kozyra 10 Rush-Henrietta 16:59.96 158.0 158
4 Andrew Sweeney 10 Rush-Henrietta 17:02.25 157.3 157

So, they could easily put their top 5 runners within 20 seconds of Hotchkiss, making them a tough team. For comparison to Mendon East, two years ago (when the course was not in awful shape), those speed ratings translated to:
164 = 17:18
155 = 17:44
151 = 17:58

Their top 4 girls are tough, here are the Suffern results for the girls:
6 Lizzie Greiner 10 Rush-Henrietta 19:42.37 105.9 106
8 Jodi Robinson 12 Rush-Henrietta 19:56.89 101.0 101
12 Kristen Cronmiller 12 Rush-Henrietta 20:24.73 91.8 92
13 Becky Greiner 10 Rush-Henrietta 20:35.83 88.1 88
33 Alana MacDonald 9 Rush-Henrietta 22:16.03 54.7 55
37 Becca Rogers 10 Rush-Henrietta 22:34.24 48.6 49

Those Speed Rating line up with the following at Mendon East:
106 = 20:27
100 = 20:42
92 = 21:10
88 = 21:21