15 Days To Go

It's just 15 days to the first practice of the season - make them count. I'm impressed by the core group of boys that has been making the captain's practices, the Tue/Thur workouts and the running camp. I think it gives the team great cause for optimism this fall. I hope that the girls have been doing some running on their own, since their turnout has been a little light at the scheduled events.

Here is an initial look at Monroe County this fall. I have taken results from all meets that results available last year, used the results to rank all of the runners, and removed all of the seniors that graduated. The remaining runners were scored, invitational style, like the Monroe County Championships, and here is what I found:

For the boys, Rush-Henrietta edges out Brighton, with Mendon 3rd. Our boys are 9th. I believe our off-season work has been better than the average team's, and I expect our boys to improve on that forecast. Here are the scores that this model predicts:

Rush Henrietta 78
Brighton 87
Mendon 108
Brockport 123
Thomas 151
Penfield 152
Irondequoit 194
Fairport 223
Schroeder 276
Arcadia 297
Athena 306
Odyssey 340
Spencerport 344
Sutherland 371
Hilton 379
Gates Chili 440
Olympia 497
East Irondequoit 552
Churchville Chili 570
Batavia inc
East Rochester inc

On the girls' side, Mendon should have no trouble repeating their County Championship, with Fairport looking good for 2nd ahead of Hilton. Our girls are predicted to be 18th, due to the large number of departing seniors. I feel confident that the returning girls will show significant improvement and our numerous newcomers will really help the team. Here are the predicted girls scores:

Mendon 64
Fairport 85
Hilton 122
Penfield 147
Rush Henrietta 151
Brighton 153
Thomas 175
Sutherland 213
Spencerport 228
Athena 275
Gates Chili 293
Odyssey 382
Irondequoit 396
Churchville Chili 427
Brockport 444
Batavia 450
East Irondequoit 484
Schroeder 491
Arcadia 517
Olympia 599
East Rochester inc

Also, Victor is joining the Monroe County league this year, and should field strong teams.